摘要
瓦格纳认为随着现代工业社会的发展,“对社会进步的政治压力”的增大,以及在工业化经营方面因“社会考虑”会要求增加政府财政支出。瓦格纳法则在我国是否成立决定我国政府提高“两个比重”的措施是否合理。文章在ADF检验和Johansen协整检验的基础之上,利用Hsiao逐步Granger因果检验法,对瓦格纳法则在中国的适用性进行检验。结果显示虽然国民收入与财政支出间并不存在长期均衡关系,但是瓦格纳法则在中国成立。同时在政府地位扩张时,要合理确立政府的规模,并严肃对待长期财政赤字问题。
Wagner pointed out that the development of modern industrial society would give rise to increasing political ＂pressure for social progress＂ and call for increased allowance for ＂social consideration＂ in the conduct of industry, The validity of Wagner＇s law decides the suitability of elevating the ＂ two ratios＂ in China, Following ADF test and Johansen co-integration test, this paper uses Hsiao＇s stepwise Granger causality test to check the validity of Wagner＇s Law. The results show that although there isn＇t a long-run equilibrium relationship between national income and fiscal expenditure, Wagner＇s Law is still valid in China, With government expansion, the reasonable size of government and long-run fiscal deficit should be seriously dealt with.
