摘要
将系统动力学方法应用于港口吞吐量预测模型,考虑了各种主要因素对港口吞吐量的影响,较好地解决了港口吞吐量预测方法中考虑系统因素较少的问题以及经济、社会发展水平的不确定性等影响港口吞吐量预测所产生的误差问题。采用宁波市港口各相关统计数据对模型进行了仿真和验证,结果证明该模型有效、可行。
System dynamics method was used for port throughput predication. The model established was able to give an overall consideration to all factors affecting port throughput predication, and give favorable solution to the errors in prediction of port throughput due to social and economic development. The proposed model was verified to be effective and feasible by simulation using relevant statistical data of port volume of Ningbo City.
出处
《水运工程》
北大核心
2006年第5期26-28,40,共4页
Port & Waterway Engineering
基金
江苏省"港口
海岸及近海工程"省级重点学科建设项目-长江三角洲港航经济系统演化仿真(G030811)
关键词
港口吞吐量
系统动力学
模型预测
port throughput
system dynamics
model predication