基于系统动力学的港口吞吐量预测模型

Prediction Model of Port Throughput Based on System Dynamics

将系统动力学方法应用于港口吞吐量预测模型,考虑了各种主要因素对港口吞吐量的影响,较好地解决了港口吞吐量预测方法中考虑系统因素较少的问题以及经济、社会发展水平的不确定性等影响港口吞吐量预测所产生的误差问题。采用宁波市港口各相关统计数据对模型进行了仿真和验证,结果证明该模型有效、可行。

System dynamics method was used for port throughput predication. The model established was able to give an overall consideration to all factors affecting port throughput predication, and give favorable solution to the errors in prediction of port throughput due to social and economic development. The proposed model was verified to be effective and feasible by simulation using relevant statistical data of port volume of Ningbo City.