企业信用状况的财务判断方法和模型——基于上市公司财务报告舞弊的实证研究

The Financial Judgment Method and Model in Corporations' Credit Status: Based on the Analysis of Listed Corporations' Fraud Financial Reports

用68个存在财务报告舞弊和68个正常上市公司为样本,把分析性复核方法与4种模型相结合建立财务报告舞弊识别模型,以此检验财务报告舞弊行为是否会使财务结构出现异常状态。结果显示:舞弊行为确实导致企业的财务结构出现异常状态,4种识别模型都具有一定的有效性,并且发现Logistic回归模型的识别率最高。

This article combines four models with analytical rechecking method to build fraud financial report identification models. Based on the samples of 68 listed corporations with normal financial reports and the same number of such corporations in financial report fraud, it examines whether financial reports fraud causes abnormality in financial structure. The result indicates that the fraud behavior does make listed corporations＂ financial structure abnormal, and the four identification models all bear some validity while logistic regression analysis model can find the fraud financial reports most effectively.