广东省东莞市1998～2003年生态足迹计算与分析

An Analysis of the Ecological Footprint of Dongguan City,Guangdong Province from 1998 to 2003

利用生态足迹模型定量研究广东省东莞市1998～2003年的可持续发展状况。结果表明，6年来东莞市的总生态足迹显现较快的上升趋势，每年平均增长12．9％，总生态承载力也是逐年上升（9％），但总生态赤字越来越大；从生态足迹的供需结构看，耕地和化石燃料用地的供需矛盾非常突出，林地、草地和水域供需相对较小。总的来说，东莞市的生态足迹已远超过其生态承载力，已对生态系统构成极大压力。从长远发展看，东莞市应该发展知识经济和循环经济，控制人口数量，并倡导新的生活方式和消费方式，同时要加强替代资源开发研究，以实现该地区发展的可持续性。

The ecological footprint （EF） model is parameterized according to the data of the statistical yearbooks to calculate and interpret EF of Dongguan City, Guangdong Province from 1998 to 2003. The results show that： 1 ） the total EF of Dongguan increased fast, mainly due to the larger population. From 1998 to 2003, the EF in this region increased from 7.68 million ha to 14.06 million ha, with an average increase of 12.9% per year. At the same time, the total ecological capacities increased by 9% every year. However, the absolute amount of ecological capacities was too small, so the total ecological deficit （DF） also increased indeed. The total DF reached 12.54 million ha in 2003, which was about 8.3 times larger than its own ecological capacities. 2 ） The structure of EF supply and demand of Dongguan is obviously dissymmetry. It is indicated that the area demand depends on two factors： consumption level and yields per hectare. In the case of Dongguan, the demands for farmland and fossil energy land are great. Compared with the average level in Guangdong Province, the EF per capita demand in Dongguan was a little lower in 2002, but the ecological deficit per capita was higher. In a word, Dongguan has run a large ecological deficit and exceeded its ecological capacity. In order to realize the sustainable development, Dongguan city should develop cycling and sciential economy, and control the population amount in the future. It should also make great efforts on the exploitation of substituting energy sources.