重新重工业化不等于粗放增长和走旧型工业化道路——对吴敬琏研究员相关论述的质疑

The Reindustrialization of Heavy Industry Unequal to the Extensive Economic Growth and the Traditional Road to Industrialization——The Doubts About Some Viewpoints of Professor Wu Jinglian

霍夫曼定理是已被历史证明的工业化发展的客观规律。重工业并不必然是资源消耗型、环境污染型产业。重工业的发展并不必然是粗放增长、外廷扩大,也不就是坚持走已经过时的旧型工业化道路。中国重新重工业化绕不开,也跨不过。反对重新重工业化,只会延误中国工业化、城镇化、现代化的进程。中国现在还不可能以服务业为主导,而且发展重工业并不排斥服务业特别是生产性服务业的发展。从总体和长期来看,重新开始重工业化有利于就业问题的解决。中国的比较优势已经发生了变化,具备了发展重工业的资本条件。重新重工业化,主要不是政府调节的产物,而是市场调节的结果。现在如果不再次大力发展重工业,到2020年就不可能完成基本实现工业化和城市化的任务。

In our opinion, the law of Hoffmann is the actual rule of industrialization proved by the historical facts; The heavy Industry is also not the industry of resources-consumed and environment-polluted mode; The growth of heavy Industry is not always equal to the extensive economic growth; the industrialization of heavy industry is unequal to the traditional road to the industrialization. We cannot keep away from or jump over the reindustrialization of heavy industry. Against the reindustrialization of heavy industry just delay the industrialization, urbanization and modernization in China. At present, service industry cannot be the chief industry in China, develop the heavy Industry is not stunt the growth of the service industry especially the producing the service industry. The reindustrialization of heavy industry is benefit for the employment in a long-term and as a whole. The comparatively advantage of China has changed, and we have the qualification in capital of growing heavy Industry. The reindustrialization of heavy industry is the result of the market mechanism but not the government mechanism. We would not complete the industrialization and urbanization in 2020 if we not speed up the heavy industry.