中国能源消费结构的变动规律研究

Study on the Change of Energy Consumption Structure in China

首次建立中国能源消费结构变化动力模型,对中国能源消费结构进行模拟和预测。研究表明,该模型能较好地模拟和预测出在中国能源消费结构中煤炭消费比例将逐步下降,石油、天然气、水电的消费比例将上升,尤其是石油消费的地位会提高。近10年来中国各部门能源消费比例变化表现为生活和第一产业的能源消费比例下降,第三产业能源消费比例上升。由于工业生产能源消费一直占中国能源消费的主体。今后应调整工业结构,降低能耗高的工业部门比重,采取措施降低第三产业过快发展带来的能源消费增长加快的问题,提高石油利用效率。

The energy problem has been one of the important problems affecting the suitable development of socioeconomic in China.The change of the energy consumption structure not only accelerates the economic development,but also closely relates with the suitable development of national economy.In view of the simulation and prediction of total energy supply and demand in China,there is a great gap,thus it is necessary to reduce energy consumption and transit energy consumption structure.Based on the dynamics theory,this paper sets up a forecast model of energy supply and demand in China,and forecasts the energy consumption structure.The research shows that this model can preferably simulate and predict that,in China＇s energy consumption structure,the consumption rate of coal will decrease,while the rates of water and electricity, natural gas and petroleum will increase,especially the status of petroleum will ascend in the energy consumption structure.Thus,the problem about petroleum affecting the suitable development of socioeconomy in China will become more and more prominent.From the change of the energy consumption proportion in each department since the recent 10 years,the percentage of residential and primary industrial energy consumption descended a little,the percentage of tertiary industry energy consumption ascended,and the consumption proportion of energy for industrial production has been in the highest flight all along.Therefore,it is necessary to adjust the industry structure,reduce the percentage of industry with high energy consumption and depress the high-speed growth of energy consumption with the tertiary industry increasing quickly,so as to ensure energy consumption increase in a suitable speed.As for the balance of supply and demand of petroleum,on the one hand it is needed to improve the use efficiency and regulate the industrial structure,on the other hand it is necessary to take effective measure to reduce petroleum consumption in the tertiary industry.