利用祁连圆柏年轮资料重建江河源区东北部600余年气候研究

Study on reconstructed climate change in more than 600 years using the tree ring data of Qilian Cypress in the northeast of the source regions of Yangtse River,Yellow River and Lantsang River

利用江河源区东北部600余年的祁连圆柏树木年轮资料,采用正交多项式、相关分析等方法,对该地区历史时期5月份平均气温和5～9月份降水量进行了重建。结果表明,江河源区东北部地区600余年来的气候呈波动变化,气温的上升和下降并不连续,5月份气温距平变化的幅度一般为±1．0℃,5年滑动平均值一般为±0．5℃,气温的年际波动值远大于其长期变化值。逐年雨季(5-9月份)的相对降水量一般为0．8～1．1,5年滑动平均为0．90-1.05,且600余年来相对降水量小1．0的时间较相对降水量大于1．0的时间长。

Based on the tree ring data of Qilian cypress in the northeast of the source regions of Yangtse River,Yellow River and Lantsang River for more than 600 years. The method of orthogonal polynomials and correlation analysis were used. The May temperatures ,precipitation from May to September of the area in history stages were reconstructed. The results indicated that the climate change was fluctuating in the area in more than 600 years. The variable range of May air temperature departure was ± 1.0 C. Its 5a moving average was in the range of ±0. 5 C. The ascendant and descendant of air temperature was not continuous. The value of year-to-year temperature difference was obviously bigger than the variable value over a long period of time. The variable range of relative precipitation year after year was 0.8-1.1. And its 5a moving average was in the range of 0. 90-1.05. The term of relative precipitation,〈1. 0 was shorter than that〉1.0.