运用灰色系统理论对城市环境噪声分析与预测

Analysis and forecasting of the causes of urban environmental noise by grey-system theory

利用灰色系统理论的灰色关联度分析法,对影响佛山市禅城区区域环境噪声的影响因子进行定量分析,结果表明,影响佛山市禅城区区域环境噪声的第一位因素是机动车辆密度;同时建立了城市区域环境噪声的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,短期预测精度很高,未来5年禅城区区域环境噪声呈平稳下降趋势。为规划防治城市区域环境噪声提供科学依据。

Using the gray system theory method, it is identified by correlation anlysis that the superior factor affecting the urban regional environmental noise of Foshan City is the density of motor vehicles. And with the Gray Model GM （ 1,1 ） ,the environmental noise variation in future five years are little descending. The paper provides scientific reference for the prevention of the urban environmental noise.