我国增值税逃税规模测算及其管理绩效评价

Measurement of VAT Evasion and Administration Performance in China

本文在分析各种逃税规模测算方法的基础上,选择了适合中国增值税实际情况的逃税规模测算方法,并对1995-2003年期间的增值税逃税规模进行了实际测算。在保守估测下,测算结果和分析表明,我国增值税的逃税率在经历了实施初期近37%的高峰后,从1998年开始呈现出大幅度下降的趋势,到2003年达到了12%左右的水平,管理绩效得到了明显的提高。但是,与欧盟大部分国家的增值税管理水平相比,我国仍然有相当大的差距。

Based on the varieties of evasion size measuring methods, this paper chooses the appropriate method to estimate the size of Chinese VAT evasion in the period 1995-2003. Understate the size of VAT evasion, The result show that the trend in Chinese VAT evasion ratio grew rapidly up to 37%, but dropped dramatically in 1998. VAT evasion ratio had subsided to 12% in 2003. Administration performance has been markedly improved. Compared with the most of EU countries, however, there is considerate gap between China and EU countries.