长江水质评价和预测的模型研究

Discussion of the Model for Appraisement and Forecast of the Changjiang River Water Quality

本文研究长江水质的评价与预测的模型。对长江近两年水质总体情况和地区分布进行了定性和定量分析。根据近10年(水文年)的主要统计数据进行分析,给出了I—V类、劣V类水无量纲百分比发展趋势和污水排放量发展趋势的超越函数混合模型和趋势图,由此预测未来长江水污染的情势。最后对解决长江水质污染问题提出了几点建议。

Discussing the model of the appraisement and the forecast for the Changjiang river＇s water quality, the paper carries through qualitative and quantitative analysis on the recapitulative situation and interlocal distributing of the Changjiang river＇s water quality for near two years. Based on the mainly statistic datum for near ten years （hydrology years）, some compounding models in consisting of several kinds of excessive functions, and trendlines of relatively statistic datum have given, in which developing trend of the percentage of every kind of water quality Ⅰ-Ⅴ, inferior Ⅴ and the trend of the quantity of pollution water （waste water） have shown, At the same time the state of water pollution of the Changjiang river＇s water for future 7 years have been forecasted. In the end some suggestion to solve the problem of water pollution of Changjiang river has been listed.