耕地经济产出影响因素实证分析——以湖北省为例

Factors Influencing Economic Output on Cultivated Land:A Case Study in Hubei Province

耕地的经济产出是评估耕地价值的重要参数.论文利用湖北省及省域范围内17个市、州、区1996年～2003年的耕地经济产出及利用等相关数据,应用因子分析和主成分回归法分析了影响耕地经济产出的自然、人文、科技以及政策等因素.根据主成分分析,影响耕地经济产出的因子可以概括为资源禀赋因素、耕作制度因素、农业科技进步因素和政策制度因素,而回归结果表明源禀赋、耕作制度、农业科技进步是目前影响耕地经济产出的重要因素,农村税费改革、种粮补贴、农村承包土地二轮延包等政策的出台及实施对耕地经济产出没有明显的影响.在目前生产条件下,稳定农业生产资料价格,控制其涨幅,改善农业生产条件,选择气候生产利用率较高的生产模式,改革耕作制度,提高耕地复种指数并发展多熟制的间作套种,是今后提高耕地经济产出的主要方向.

Cultivated land economic output is an important parameter for estimating the farmland value. So it is very important to analyze the influencing factors of cultivated land economic output. Firstly, we theoretically analyze some factors, such as natural and human factors, technical factors, and policy factors. Secondly, the empirical analysis taken Hubei Province as an example is carried out. In this paper, we get the data relating to cultivated land economic output and land use from Rural Statistical Yearbook of Hubei Province,and make an empirical analysis using the data in Hubei Province and its 17 cities during 1996 to 2003 .It is found that the total area of cultivated land in Hubei Province decreased from 334.925×10^4ha in 1996 to 303.345 ×10^4ha in 2003. At the same time,the cultivated land economic output calculated according to the prices in 1990 increased from 9 725.16 Yuan·ha^-1 to 12 872.65 Yuan·ha^-1 with an increase rate of 32.4 percent. According to the result of principal component analysis the increase of arable land output are attributed to 4 groups of factors such as natural factor, cropping system, technological advance and policy influence. And the regression analysis result indicates that the effects from the natural factor, cropping system and technological advance are significant. The natural factors is basic factor, which restrains the application of advanced agricultural technology. The improvement of the cropping system and adoption of new technology have a positive relationship with the economic output of farmland. But the policies of government are playing a weak role. Under existing condition, stabilizing the price of agro-inputs and adopting favorable cropping system for efficiently utilizing natural resources are the direction for increasing farmland output.