淮河流域致洪暴雨预警系统

Flood-Causing Torrential Rain Forecasting and Warning System for Huaihe River

介绍淮河流域暴雨预警系统和所采用的处理方法。该系统利用合肥CIN RAD雷达体扫资料,配合地面雨量观测资料,采用最优判别系教法建立了适合淮河流域的Z I关系,用以估算每6分钟的降水量。此外系统还在区分GMS5卫星云图上不同种类云系的基础上,配合地面观测,采用数理统计方法建立了淮河流域GMS5卫星估算降水多通道经验公式。在CINRAD雷达和GMS5卫星的雨量估算结果的基础上,通过与站点观测雨量的对比分析,利用数理统计方法对这两类估算雨量资料进行了集成。集成估算得到的雨量值较单独用CINRAD雷达或GMS5卫星进行雨量估算的结果在精度上有所改进,能更精确地对淮河流域雨量进行估算,进而结合HLAFS数值预报产品进行致洪暴雨的预警。该系统在2003年汛期成功地对淮河流域出现的几次暴雨过程进行了预警,汛期服务效果显著。

The Flood-Causing Torrential Rain forecasting and warning system for Huaihe River and it＇s method are introduced. Rainfall was estimated by using of satellite and CINRAD-radar data.. Furthermore, form GMS-5 Multi-Channel data, we developed the empirical formula of rainfall measurement using statistic method in Huaihe River field. And then, combining the HLAFS data, Flood-Causing Torrential Rain were forecasted and warned. The system was tested by the application of flood season in 2003 and good service effect was received.