中国区域经济增长及其收敛性:空间面板数据分析

Chinese Regional Economic Growth and Convergence:Spatial Panel Data Analysis

本文运用空间面板数据分析方法考察中国区域经济增长和收敛性问题。首先介绍了空间固定效应模型的设定和经济意义,并概要说明了面板数据模型的空间相关性检验、模型选择和估计等问题。在此基础上,使用空间固定效应模型对1985-2004年中国省级区域经济增长及其收敛性进行了实证分析,发现条件收敛是非常可靠的经验结论,同时验证了增长过程中区域外溢显著存在。最后概括了主要研究结论和促进区域经济协调发展的政策含义。

This paper applies spatial panel data model to the study of China＇ s regional economy growth and convergence. First the paper introduces the specification and economic significance of spatial fixed effects models, and estimation of the models, spatial dependence test and choice of the model are introduced in brief. Based on the above models and methods, an empirical analysis of China＂ s provincial growth over 1985-2004 is carried out. The results reveal that conditional convergence is a very reliable empirical conclusion, and prove that regional spiUovers exist significantly during the process of growth. Last the main conclusions are summarized and the policy implications aiming at adjusting of regional development are given.