国内油价高涨的主因——基于VAR的实证分析

The Main Reason for Surge of Domestic Oil Price——A VAR Approach

近年来,国际原油价格强势上扬,国内原油价格也不断上调。尽管一些学者从国内需求增加和国内外原油价格接轨的角度来说明目前原油和成品油的高位,但这些理论似乎都无法完全解释当前油价暴涨的现象。本文从原油和成品油的市场结构和定价机制出发,基于VAR模型证明了国内油价主要为短线预期带动所致,这种预期从国外传递到国内并导致了国内油价的上涨。因此通过改革油品的定价机制且完善和适当干预国内原油期货交易市场,可以打压这种非理性预期,抑制油价飙升的势头。

Both international and domestic oil prices surge recently. Though some scholars attribute increase of domestic oil price to the increasing demand and international markets, these conclusions are not convincing. Based on VAR methods, this paper illustrates that the impetus of oil price increase is short-run expectation under monopolistic oil market and immature oil pricing mechanism in China. Therefore, reform of oil pricing and intervention in domestic future markets will ensure rational expectation and thus stabilize oil price.