长江水质的评价和预测

The Appraisal and Forecast of Yangtse's Water Quality

应用模糊识别综合评价法探讨了长江近两年的水质状况并给出了主要污染流域,进一步利用指数调整模型确定了近一年来各个污染指标严重超标的地区·应用线性回归模型及ARIMA模型预测了未来长江水质的污染趋势和各年达到控制要求的污水处理量·最后就污染防治提出了可行性建议·

This paper discussed the water quality status of Yangtse River and its main polluted drainage area in the recent two years by illegibility identify appraisal model, furthermore, confirmed the more polluted area of each polluted index by index adjust model in the recent one year. The paper forecasted the polluted trend of the water quality and the sewage disposal quantity which reach the control demand each year by the linear regress model and the ARIMA model. In the end, the paper put forward the feasibility advice ablut the pollution＇s prevention and cure.