灰色马尔可夫模型在煤矿安全事故预测中应用

Application of Gray Markov Model in the Coal Mine Safety Faulty Forecast

灰色马尔可夫模型是将灰色系统理论和马尔可夫链理论相结合建立的预测模型,它不仅充分发挥了灰色预测模型和马尔可夫预测模型的优点,而且,因为马尔可夫链理论的引入,有效地解决了灰色预测模型对于随机波动性较大的数列预测精度低的问题。并且,通过对煤矿千人负伤率预测的实际应用表明,灰色马尔可夫预测模型完全能满足预测精度的要求。

The gray Markov model is a forecast model based on the gray system theory and Markov chain theory. It not only makes good use of the advantages of gray forecast model and Markov mode, but also solves efficiently the problem of low precision of number list forecast. What＇s more, according to the forecast about the rate of thousands wounded people ,the gray Markov forecast model can satisfy the desire in forecast precision.