石油勘探开发系统动力学模型的建立与政策研究

Construction of the System Dynamics Model for Oil′s Exploration and Exploitation and Policy Decision on It

分析了石油勘探开发中内在的信息反馈结构与机制以及相互因果关系。运用系统动力学理论和方法,以近几年X油田的勘探开发数据为基础,建立了能在计算机上运行的、人-机对话式的经济模型。通过与实际数据进行对比分析,发现该经济模型与实际数据吻合良好。并对X油田今后6年的石油勘探开发情况进行了模拟分析。通过预测分析,认为X油田在不断提高采收率基础上,保持适当的总投资增长和不断降低成本是油田持续稳健发展的必要条件,为决策部门提供了科学依据。

The internal information feed - back structure and mechanism＂ are studied. Cause - and - effect relations in exploring and exploiting the oil resources are analyzed. Based on the latest data of X oil field, an interactive computer -based economics model is established using the principle and methods of the system dynamics. By comparing with the real data, the result of this model is similar with real data. The situation of exploration and exploitation of X oil field in six years is predicted and simulated. It is necessary to enhance recovery ratio, keep steady increase of total investment and cut down cost for the healthy development of oil field. In short, this model supplies scientific foundation for nolicv decision department.