热带气旋路径强度预报──SAPC法

A METHOD OF FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY──SAPC METHOD

ＳＡＰＣ──逐段相似气候持续性热带气旋路径、强度预报方法，既考虑了热带气旋的气候持续性规律，又考虑了与现时热带气旋状态特别相似的历史热带气旋路径、强度变化规律，用不同的相似条件和权重，把气候路径、相似路径和持续性路径作了有机的统一．该方法克服了预报路径的大曲率变化，考虑了随时间、地点变化的热带气旋的气侯规律，根据热带气旋的现时状态，即可随时制作路径、强度预报．历史资料检验和实际应用表明该方法有实用价值．

The SAPC(stagewise analogous persistence of climate) method is used to forecast tropical cyclone track and intensity. It can effectively synthesize climatic tracks,analogous tracks and persistent tracks by using the various analogous conditions and weights.The method, which avoiding the sharp changes of the track curvature and considering the climatic statistical results of the various tropical cyclones varying with time and location,can make a predicted tropical cyclone track and intensity according to the present situation.By testing historical data of tropical cyclones and operational forecasting, it is shown that the method is available.