北京地区夏季降水概率预报业务应用研究

The Application Studies of Summer Precipitation Probability Forecasts in Beijing

作者分析了降水概率预报的基本特征，在北京中尺度数值预报模式（ＢＭＮＦＭ）的基础上应用事件概率回归估计（ＲＥＥＰ）方法，建立北京地区夏季两个量级（≥０．１ｍｍ和≥１０．０ｍｍ）的降水概率预报方程，并结合最新天气观测资料和预报员知识订正客观预报结果。应用Ｂ评分，Ｂｓ评分和Ｂｉａｓ方法对主观降水概率预报和客现降水概率预报进行评估。

he basic characteristics of precipitation probability forecasts (PPS) are analysed. Theprobabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast equation is given by the use of REEP methodbased on the BMNFM. Moreover,the objective results are verified by new weather data andforecaster's knowledge,and the objective PPF and subjective PPF are estimated by B score.