摘要
以武汉中心气象台日常业务降水预报项目为研究对象，选择梅雨期１２—３６小时预报时段，以灰色系统理论的生成函数为基础，运用灰色预测模型将ＬＡＦＳ模式等降水量预报集成，制作了武汉单站降水量分级（弱降水，中等强度降水和强降水）预报。运用回归分析方法，将ＬＡＦＳ资料的降水量预告场订正到湖北省５个自然区，制作湖北省区域降水分级预报。经过１９９３年、１９９４年准业务试验，获得了较好的效果。
h rainfall forecast has been studied in 5 feature regions of Hubei and Wuhan station during mei-yu period. It was divided into 3 grades (light rain.moderate rain and heavyrain). Based on the grey forecast model,the precipitation predictand's consensus of vary numerical model (Beijing LAFS.Beijing B.Japan etc. )was made for the station;Using methodof regression analysis,rainfall predictions was given with LAFS data. Semi-operational prediction was conducted in 1993 and 1994. Better forecasting results were achieved.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
1996年第1期49-52,共4页
Meteorological Monthly
关键词
灰色预测
回归分析
分级降水预报
梅雨期
grey forecasting regression analysis classification rainfall forecasting
