基于关联分析的多因素电力负荷预测灰色模型群研究

Grey load forecasting models based on relational analysis of multi-factor

针对目前电力负荷预测受到多种因素的影响,在灰色关联分析的基础上对灰色模型群进行了研究。以河北南网用电量为研究对象,将全社会用电量分为若干子系统,使用灰色关联分析的方法确定主因素变量,利用灰色模型群建模法,从不同方面建立多种预测模型,综合协调各个结果得到更为合理的预测值。

Considering that the power load forecasting is influenced by many factors, the grey model cluster is studied based on the relational analysis, The power consumption of Hebei south net is used as the research object. The power consumption of the whole society is divided into some subsystems. The main factors are determined using grey relational analysis, Many kinds of prediction models are established from different respects by using modeling of grey model cluster, The results are synthesized and coordinated m obtain the predicted values.