机场轨道交通对陆侧交通分流情况的预测研究

A Study on Distribution Forecasting of Airport Rail to Landside Traffic

机场轨道交通的发展将是解决机场陆侧交通拥堵问题的主要途径之一.本文首先通过灰色预测模型GM(1,1)对首都机场的陆侧交通量进行预测,得出进出机场的旅客中乘坐机场巴士及出租车的人数.在此基础上,运用排队论的方法,分析机场轨道交通对机场巴士及出租车交通量的分流情况,得出各自具体的分流率和分流量.最后,根据马尔可夫链的方法,对分流情况的发展趋势进行分析,得出其稳定分流率.

This paper discusses the application of gray model and operational research in distributing of Airport rail to landside antic. First of all, we used GM（ 1,1 ） forecast the landside traffic volume of Beijing Capital International Airpert. And, we obtained the number of passengers to airport by bus and taxi. Moreover, we applied queuing theory to analyze the distribution of airport rail to bus and taxi and gained the respective distributing rate and volume. Last, based on the Markov Chains, we forecasted the distributing trend and obtained the steady distributing rate.