自适应指数平滑预报模型在灌区需水量预报中的应用

The Use of the Adaptive Control Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Model for Water Demand Forecast in An Irrigation District

本文详述了指数平滑预报模型建模原理，并根据灌区需水量预报的具体特点，着重探讨了模型的自适应控制及模型参数的选取和初值的确定方法。实例预报结果表明，把自适应指数平滑预报模型应用于灌区需水量预报中是可行的。

The principle for building exponential smoothing model is given in the paper.The adaptive control method of forecasting model, the selection of model parameter and method for determining initial value of parameter and so on are studied in detail on the basis of the specific feature of water demand forecast on an irrigation district. The forecasting results of the case study has proved that the adaptive control exponential smoothing forecasting model suits water demand forecast in irrigation districts.