“红色旅游”对相对成熟旅游地客流量的拉升作用——以武夷山为例

当武夷山实际旅游人数冲到70万人次之后其增长速度明显放缓,然而,方兴未艾的“红色旅游”却为武夷山旅游业的发展提供了有利契机。准确预测武夷山“红色旅游”客流量对其旅游资源的开发具有重大的指导作用。目前,常用的预测方法多数需要一定量的游客数据积累。这一点是武夷山“红色旅游”所缺乏的。因此,结合武夷山“红色旅游”的特点,选择逻辑斯蒂曲线与景区环境容量相结合的方法,预测武夷山“红色旅游”未来几年的游客流量,由此得出,“红色旅游”对已经进入相对成熟阶段的旅游胜地客流量的增加是有拉升作用的。

While the tourism amount of Wuyi Mountain came to 700thousand, its increase speed apparently slowed down. However, there is a good opportunity provided by ＂Red Tourism＂ . At the beginning of the touring plan of Da＇ an and Chi Shi , we recognize that the forecasting of tourist amount become more and more important and play a lead role in the exploitations of tourism resources and tou-fism market. At present, the conventional methods of tourism amount forecasting are mostly based on data collection of the tourists . That is what ＂Red Tourism＂ scenic spots in Wuyi Mountain lack. So , we adopt the characters of new scenic spots which are being exploited and protected at the same time , and attempt to forecast the tourist amount of ＂Red ToLtrism＂ in Wuyi mountain in a visible future , by means of combining the population - growth logistic curve with the environmental carrying capacity . At last, we conclude that there is a positive foundation to improve Wuyi Mountain tourism amount by ＂Red Tourism ＂