我国养老保险体系的全国统筹模型建立及预测分析

The Construction of Model,Analyzing and Forecasting for National Pooling Account about Pension System in China

完善的养老保险体系是国民经济可持续发展的重要保障,将养老保险统筹层次从目前的省级统筹上升到全国统筹是健全我国养老保险体系的必备条件。本文构建了统筹精算模型,预测统筹系统的平衡情况,分析建立全国统筹的阻碍所在,给出实施建议及实施路径。

A perfect pension system is an important guarantee for the sustainable development of a contry＇s economy, As for china＇s pension system, it is necessary to promote the current pooling account from provincial level to national level, The paper constructs the actuarial model for pooling account, forcasting the actuarial balance of pooling accont system, and analyzing the difficulties to construct national pooling account in china, In the end ,some advices and the possible path for carrying out are given,