其它可能原因的呈现方式在因果判断中的作用

The Influence of Alternative Causes' Presenting Mode on Causal Judgement

研究使用不同方式呈现了其它可能原因,研究了这种不同的呈现方式对被试使用共变信息和经验信息进行因果判断的影响。研究结果表明:(1)其它可能原因的呈现方式对于因果判断有着一定的影响。当这一信息在待判断原因与结果的共变中出现、且永远存在时,被试会排除这一其它可能原因的作用,从而增强判断的信心;(2)当其它可能原因出现于待判断原因与结果的共变中、且永远存在时,被试会在一定程度上忽视经验信息的作用,更多地依赖共变信息做出判断。

The present study used two different modes to present the information about alternative causes and investigated the influence on this mode causal judgement. The results were as follows： （ 1 ） The presenting mode of alternative causes had some influence on the subjects＇ causal judgement. The subjects had more confidence in making sure that the candidate cause is the true cause of the effect when the information about alternative causes was presented with the information about covariation between the effect and the candidate cause. （2） In this situation, the information of covarition was more important in the judgment, and the subjects＇ pre-existing belief was ignored.