修正四阶段法在城市交通抗灾规划中的应用

Application of Revised Four-stage Method in Urban Transport Plan for Emergency Response

根据地震环境下不同恢复阶段的社会经济活动及交通系统特性,对传统交通预测四阶段法———出行产生、出行分布、方式划分、交通分配的宏观模型进行了修正,讨论了不同模型的参数变化趋势,建议了参数的调整原则及方法,进而以修正四阶段法为基础进行震后交通需求预测。该方法简便易行,预测得到道路通行能力、流量、负荷度和平均运行时间等多个指标,为城市交通系统防灾规划提供决策依据。最后,结合我国东南沿海某城市的工程实践,有针对性的进行了应用和验证。

Based on the social economic activity and traltic characters in different period, the authors modified the traditional four-stage traffic demand estimation model, which included traffic generation, trip-distribution, mode spht and tragic distribution.The changing tendency of different parameters in the models is discussed and the parameter adjustment principle and method are suggested. And then based on the modified four-stage method, the traflqc demand in response to natural disaster such as earthquake can be estimatod.h can help the government to make anti-disaster plan.The method is easy to use to get a number of forecast data, including capacity of roadway, volume, the V/ C and average travel time, which are the base of emergency response plan of urban transport system. Finally, the research method is used in engineering work in a city in the south-east of China.