对中国未来10年道路交通安全状况分析与初步预测

Road Traffic Safety Condition Analysis and Preliminary Forecast to Future Decade in China

笔者从中国现代道路交通系统的发展现状与道路交通安全状况出发，以过去10多年中国汽车、摩托车保有量的发展轨迹为基础，对中国未来一定时期（2004～2015年）机动车保有量的发展变化及政府采取不同管理对策条件下的道路交通安全状况的发展水平进行了预测。结果表明：政府管理对策对道路交通安全状况变化具有决定性影响。

According to the road traffic safety condition of China, based on the motorization development trend in last 10 years in China, the author forecasts motor vehicle population over 2004 - 2015 and the development level under different development strategies in the China. The result shows that the government management policies have decisive influence on road traffic safety situation.