我国国际收支对通货膨胀传导机制的经济计量检验

Econometric Test on the Transmission Mechanism of Balance of Payment to Inflation in China

随着经济全球化程度的日益提高,我国的经济运行已经处于渐进的开放经济条件之下,这使得货币控制已经不完全取决于国内的经济因素。因此,研究来自外部经济因素的影响就越发显得重要。本文通过Granger影响关系、VAR模型的冲击反应和误差方差分解等方法证实了通货膨胀的外部传导机制,即我国国际收支状况的变化引致外汇储备变化,对以外汇占款形式的基础货币投放产生影响,从而对通货膨胀构成影响,最终对宏观经济运行产生作用。

With the improvement of economic globalization, economic process in China has already under the gradual open economy. Under this situation, monetary control does not wholly depend on the domestic economic factors. So, it is important to study the influence from exterior economic factors. Through Granger causality test and VAR＇s impulse response and variance decompositions, the article confirms the exterior transmission mechanism, which means that the changes of the balance of payment induce the changes in foreign exchange reserve, this situation influences basic money supply in form of the stock of foreign reserves, then influences inflation, and eventually exerts influence on macroeconomic process.