宏观经济预期的测度:基于行为经济学的调查方法研究

The Measure on Macroeconomic Expectation——An Argument for Survey Measure Based on Behavioral Economics

预期对于理解经济有着重要的意义,预期的形成依赖于信心、情绪或者心态等心理因素。很多国家和机构的调查系统都以行为经济学的理论为指导,设计了有关消费者或投资者心理行为的调查,并且以此开发出了诸如信心指数、情绪指数和预期通货膨胀率等行为调查数据。对这些调查系统中信心、情绪和预期等心理行为的调查方法,以及将调查结果转化为行为调查数据的处理方法的理解和运用,对我国宏观经济预警和调控具有重要意义。

The consumers＇ expectation is very important for understanding economic phenomena, the evolution of expectation depends on such psychological factors as confidence and sentiment. Many countries and institutions construct the consumer survey systems that have the questions on consumers＇ behavior, which are based on the theory of behavioral economics, and use the data from the questions to design some behavior index, such as consumer sentiment index and expected inflation. This paper specifically introduces the survey data method of studying these quantitative behaviors. To understand and apply those measures is very important for macroeconomic forecasting and managing.