摘要
本文以衡量贸易自由化的各种指标为出发点,选取贸易依存度作为研究指标,借助于协整检验、格兰杰因果检验等计量方法分析1990年以来我国外贸开放度与经济增长之间的关系,发现贸易依存度、出口依存度、进口依存度与经济增长存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,各变量之间有着单向因果关系,且出口、进口都对经济增长起着促进作用,故而,我国应二者并重,积极参与贸易自由化的进程。
This paper begins with various indices of trade liberalization, selects international trade dependent ratio as study object, and analyzes the relationship between trade openness and China＇s economic growth since 1990 by virtue of econometric methods as cointegration test and Granger causality test. This paper finds that there is a long-run equilibrium between international trade dependent ratio, export dependent ratio, import dependent ratio and economic growth, and there is a single-direction causality between variables. Moreover, both export and import promote the economic growth. As a result, China may actively take part in the process of trade liberalization.
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"中国进入贸易大国行列后贸易政策及战略的修正研究"(04BJL055)的成果之一。
关键词
贸易自由化
贸易依存度
经济增长
格兰杰因果检验
中国
Trade liberalization
International trade dependent ratio
Economic growth
Granger causality test
