农民消费需求与农村金融发展关系研究——基于协整分析与误差修正模型

The Financial Support For Expanding Consumer Demand Of Rural Residents——Based on Co -integration Analysis and Error Correction Model

本文通过对我国1981—2004年农民消费支出与农村金融发展的关系进行协整检验并建立误差修正模型，验证了两者之间存在的长期协整关系和短期修正关系。研究表明，无论从长期还是从短期来看，我国农村金融发展与农民消费支出均呈较弱的正相关性。我国农村金融的发展虽在一定程度上带动了农民消费需求的增长，但目前它对农民消费需求的拉动作用依然滞后，因此，针对农民消费需求的金融支持需要进一步加强。

By using econometric methodology of co - integrate relationship test and ECM model, this paper tests the long - term co - integrate relationship and short - term correction relationship between peasant consuming expenditure and rural financial development of China from 1981 to 2004. The result shows that Regardless of looking for a long time or the short - term, there exists a weak positive relevance between rural finance and the peasant consuming expenditure. This indicates that in some extent, the development of rural finance leads to the increasing of peasant consumption demand, but at present its function for improving peasant consumption demand still lags. Therefore, the financial support for peasant consumption demand needs to be strengthened.