我国服务贸易与GDP的协整分析

On Cointegration of China's Services Trade and Its Gross Domestic Products

我国服务贸易与GDP之间存在长期均衡关系。服务出口对我国经济发展具有显著的推动作用,其对GDP增长的贡献大于服务贸易总额的贡献。我国经济发展为服务进口提供了源动力。我国服务贸易与GDP之间由短期偏离向长期均衡调整的速度很快。因此,增加服务出口是我国长期要坚持的策略,重视服务进口有利于我国经济的可持续发展。

There exists a long-term cointegration between China＇s services trade and its GDP.The paper points out that China＇s services export enjoys advantages in its economic growth and makes larger contribution than that of the total vulume of the service trade. The deviation of short-term to long-term is well adjusted between China＇s services trade and its GDP.Accordingly, to expand services export should be a long-term policy and attach importance to services trade is beneficial to China＇s sustanable economic growth.