农地非农化与粮食安全:理论与实证分析

Land conversion and food security:theoretical framework and empirical analysis

分析了影响粮食生产的主要因素，认为农地非农化只是影响粮食生产的因素之一。从理论上研究了农地非农化对粮食安全的综合效应，并实证分析了农地非农化对我国粮食安全的影响。结果表明，1989至2000年农地非农化使我国的粮食总产出下降了1．42％。本研究还设计了不同的情景方案：如果2000至2030年农地非农化面积在1997至2002年年均农地非农化面积的基础上扩大10％-50％，农地非农化导致的粮食产出损失最高为粮食需求星的6％左右。因此，应该适当释放农地，以促进经济发展。

Land conversion is just one of factors which affect grain production. A theoretical framework to analyze the effect of land conversion on food security was constructed in this paper, and an empirical study was taken. The result showed that land conversion decreases the output of grain 1.42% from 1989 to 2000. Different scenarios to study the effect of land conversion on food security were also designed in this paper. The result showed that if the quantity of annual land conversion increases 10%-50% than the average number of 1997 to 2002, from 2000 to 2030, the loss of grain production caused by land conversion would be about 6% of grain demand. As a result, the authors advise to release some farmland to satisfy the demand of economic development.