中国应该让人民币升值吗?——分析汇率对外国直接投资的影响

Should China Allow Its Currency to Appreciate? Assessing the Impact of Exchange Rates on FDI

本文构造了一个包含一个FDI输出国，两个FDI接受国的静态模型。通过此模型，我们分析了真实汇率是如何影响FDI在两个接受国之间的分布。从模型中得到的理论结果是：如果一个FDI接受国的货币对FDI输出国货币的贬值（升值）幅度，大于另一个FDI接受国的货币对FDI输出国货币的贬值（升值）幅度，那么，流入该国的FDI将会相对上升（下降）。我们利用1981年至2002年日本在中国和东盟四国（印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾和泰国）制造业直接投资的数据，检验了模型的理论结果。实证结果表明，相对的真实汇率是决定日本FDI在中国与东盟四国之间分布的重要因素。如果人民币对日元实际升值10％，在其他因素均未改变的情况下，日本对中国制造业的直接投资可能会下降超过11％。

In this paper, we construct a model for evaluating the impact of real exchange rates on FDI allocation between host countries. In the model, there is one FDI source country and two FDI host countries. The theoretical result based on the model indicates that, relative FDI inflows to a particular host country increase （decrease） if its currency depreciates （appreciates） against the currency of the source country more than the rival＇s currency does. Using 1981-2002 data on Japanese FDI in the manufacturing of China and the ASEAN-4 （Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand）, we empirically examine the theoretical conclusion. The econometric results show that, the relative real exchange rate is one of the significant factors determining the distribution of Japanese FDI between China and the ASEAN-4. Japanese FDI flows into China would be expected to decrease by more than 11% if the yuan appreciates 10% against yen in real terms, holding everything else constant.