国际贸易和自然资源“诅咒”:中国的增长威胁到东南亚地区的发展了吗?

International Trade and the Natural Resource “Curse” in Southeast Asia: Does China’s Growth Threaten Regional Development?

随着中国经济的迅猛发展和快速融入全球市场，东南亚资源丰裕国家正在不断丧失其在劳动密集型制造业上的比较优势，同时其资源开发变得更为有利可图。对这些东南亚国家，尤其是一些最为贫穷同时却又正处于减少中央对资源控制管理的分权过程中的国家而言，这一趋势如何影响长期增长和福利？正如“自然资源诅咒”所预言一样，快速的资源采伐和减速的工业发展可能会使这些国家进入慢速经济增长时期。

Due to China＇s rapid growth and integration with global markets, Southeast Asians resource abundant economies are losing comparative advantage in labor-intensive manufacturing and gaining it in natural resources. The former poses a threat to future industrial expansion. The latter will generate short-run export windfalls but may not be sustainable. What are the implications for long-run growth and welfare, particularly in the poorest economies, and especially in light of decentralization, which has reduced resource management capacity？ Rapid resource depletion and reduced industrial growth could expose countries to a period of slow economic growth, as predicted in the ＂natural resource curse＂ hypothesis.