科恩的新概率理论分析

An Analysis of Cohen'S New Concept of Probability

科恩(L.J.Cohen)认为以波普尔(K.Popper)的数学主义理论为代表的多标准的概率解释不是真正的解释性的理论。为此,他提出了新的概率概念并把它解释为可证性的程度,结果,那样一个概率的陈述被视为对推理有效性的评价。这种概率概念的根本特征是它的内在的多标准性,相应地,它可以合理地和满意地解释概率现象的多标准性,揭示它们内在的概念的统一性。

Cohen criticizes the polycfitefial account of probability whose representation is Popper＇ S mathematics throry for its not being genuinely explantory. On the basis of it, Cohen puts forward a new concept of probability construed as the degree of provability and as a result, probability statements are treated as evaluations of inferential soundness. The essential feature of such a probability is its underlying unity and consequently, it can rionaly and satisfactorily explane probability＇ S being polycritefial and further uncover its underlying unity.