基于Kriging插值的黄河流域降水时空分布格局

Spatial and Temporal Structure of Precipitation in the Yellow River Basin Based on Kriging Method

采用国家气象局整编的1960-2000年黄河流域97个气象站点的系列资料和Kriging插值方法,对黄河流域降水时空结构及其变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:黄河流域多年平均降水量的地区分布既受天气系统的制约,又受地形等地理环境的影响,造成明显的地区性差异;就年际变化而言,20世纪60年代和80年代降水偏多,尤其是80年代黄河流域年平均降水与正常值相比要偏高许多,而70年代和90年代降水偏少,目前正处于降水偏少时期。黄河流域上游的降水增加趋势相当明显,而中游和下游降水则明显减少;就降水年内分配而言,降水高度集中在汛期(6-9月),且上、中、下游降水均以7、8月最多,但下游7、8月降水较中、上游更为集中。研究结果和分析结论对了解黄河流域水资源演变具有十分重要的意义。

Based on the series climate data of 97 meteorological stations in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2000 compiled by the China Meteorological Administration, the spatial and temporal structure of precipitation in the Yellow River Basin was analyzed,by using Kriging method. The results showed that the distribution of long year average precipitation in the Yellow River Basin had an obvious regional difference, which was influenced not only by the weather system, but also by the topography and geographical environment. The main distribution trend was that there was more in the Southeastern and less in the Northwestern; In views of the changes of annual precipitation in the Yellow River Basin, it has an appreciably increasing trend and the tendenchanges of annual precipitation in the Yellow River Basin, it has an appreciably increasing trend and the tendency was 1,308mm/10a. Moreover,the precipitation was above normal in the 1960s and 1980s and below normal in the 1970s and 1990s. The precipitation increased obviously in the up stream,but decreased in the middle and lower reaches of the river;In respect to assigning within the year, the precipitation in the Yellow River Basin centralized greatly during June and September, but there were the largest in July and August. Furthermore, downriver precipitation gets more centralized than others＇. The conclusions were important to research the evolvement of water resources the Yellow River Basin.