气候变化对陕西棉花产量影响的情景分析

Scenario Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Cotton Yield in Shaanxi Province

采用陕西省棉花产量和逐旬日照时数、气温及降水量资料,建立棉花产量预测模式,并在此基础上分析在温度增加0.5℃、1.0℃及降水量变化±10%、±20%、±30%的情景下棉花气象产量的变化状况,据此提出陕西省棉花生产可持续发展对策。

Based on cotton yields and meteorological data of sunlight, temperature and precipitation every ten days in Shaanxi Province, the cotton yield prediction model was established. The changes of cotton yields under different scenarios,e, g. temperature increase by 0.5℃ and by 1.0℃, precipitation change by ±10%,±20% and±30% respectively,were analyzed, The countermeasures for a sustainable development of cotton production in Shaanxi Province were put forward.