不完全市场、不确定性和中国利息税

INCOMPLETE MARKETS,UNCERTAINTY,AND THE INTEREST TAX IN CHINA

通过建立具有利息税的不完全市场一般均衡模型对中国均衡利率和均衡资本进行分析,我们可以看到,利息税使得储蓄更低而利率更高。但是,流动性约束和预防性储蓄等不完全市场因素的存在使得资本供给曲线显著向右移动,导致储蓄增高。因此,当我们评价利息税对经济的影响的时候,必须考虑流动性约束和预防性储蓄的逆向作用。

Using a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets and interest tax, this paper studies the effect of interest tax on equilibrium interest rate. We find that the existence of interest tax results in a lower equilibrium capital stock and higher interest rate in the economy. But the liquidity constraints and uncertainty make the supply curve rightward shift, and result in larger saving. Therefore, when we discuss whether the interest tax should be cancelled, we should take into account the effect of the liquidity constraints and uncertainty.