社会保障水平发展曲线与养老保险模式选择

The Reversal U Curve Hypothesis of Social Security Level and the Alternative to Pension Insurance in China

中国的养老保险模式经历了从现收现付到统账结合的改革过程。文章从社会保障水平发展的倒U型曲线假说的三个阶段,比较欧洲养老保险制度模式的发展过程,分析了中国的养老保险从现收现付到统账结合的必然转折,并企图预测下一次转折的时间和方式,同时对转折过程中可能遇到的问题和对策进行了研究。

Our pension insurance goes through the evolution from the model of pay-as-you-go to social pooling combined with individual accounts. Based on the three phases of the reversal curve hypothesis, the unchangeable trend of the pension insurance in china is analyzed, and the time and mode of next transition are predicted. Meanwhile, the problems and countermeasures about the transition of reform are studied as well.