房地产泡沫生成与演化——基于金融支持过度假说的一种解释

Forming and Evolvement of Real Estate Bubble: An Explanation of Hypothesis Financial Supportive Excess

本文在房地产市场局部均衡的框架下,探讨了金融支持过度与房地产泡沫生成和演化的过程,提出了金融支持过度假说,认为如果房地产开发商和置业者都可以从银行取得贷款,当房地产市场存在群体投机行为时,房地产价格将高于基础价格,并且会随着金融支持力度的增加而不断上升,这一上升的部分我们称之为泡沫。此时,如果房地产借款者违约行为迅速蔓延,房地产泡沫将随之破灭,并有引发金融危机的危险。本文最后利用文中所确定的衡量金融支持过度的临界值,对我国房地产金融支持程度进行了实证分析。

Based on part equilibrium of real estate, the paper researches financial supportive excess and evolvement of real estate bubble and puts forward hypothesis of financial supportive excess. We consider if real estate development enterprises and consumers of real estate all can take loan from bank and when there is herd behavior in the real estate market, price of real estate will be higher than fundamental price. Furthermore, the price will rise continuously with financial supportive excess increasing and we define the rising price as the bubble. At this time, if consumers of real estate begin to breach of faith, real estate bubble will overturn quickly and lead to financial crisis. The paper finally studies the critical value of financial supportive excess and degree of financial support in China.