低档卷烟短缺的经济学分析

The Economic Analysis of Shortage in the Low-end Cigarettes

保持低档卷烟的适度供求平衡是目前烟草行业的一个重大课题。现有的分析主要把低档卷烟短缺的原因归结为消费税提高、原辅料涨价等产业外部因素。本文试图从产业内部的角度,通过厂商行为的理论和实证分析,揭示造成短缺的四种内部因素。在此基础上,对缓解短缺的方法进行评析并提出最优的解决办法。

It is an important issue recently for China tobacco industry to keep appropriate balance between supply and demand in the low-end cigarettes. The existing analysis argues mainly that the shortage of low-end cigarettes resulted from the exterior factors such as excise tax increasing, tobacco leaf and supplies appreciating but this paper will reveal four new reasons resulted in the shortage from the interior of tobacco industry itself through theoretic and empirical analyzing. Furthermore, a review on measures that release shortage will be given and an optimal solution is also suggested.