西气东输工程的环境协同效应研究

The Environmental Co-Benefits of the West_East of Natural Gas Pipeline Project

协同效应研究是气候变化政策研究的新领域,也是非常重要的领域.西气东输工程的主要目的是为我国中东部地区输送丰富的天然气资源,但其实施同时也有助于减少东部地区大气污染物排放,改善大气质量.利用较成熟的中国区域环境与经济综合评价模型(AIM-LOCAL/China模型),从用气项目的SO2和CO2排放的常规情景(BAU)和利用天然气后的情景(NGS)两方面进行了量化比较,分析西气东输工程的环境协同效应.研究发现:在用气项目的范围内,NGS情景下的SO2排放相比BAU情景明显减少,同时CO2等温室气体排放也大幅减少.2003—2020年,累计可以减排约312×104t SO2和3 475×104t CO2,分别比BAU情景减排40.5%和17.9%.从4个用气部门来看,不论是SO2还是CO2,电力部门用气项目的减排量都占突出位置.

The research on co-benefits is a new and very important area in the field of climate change policy research. The West-East Natural Gas Pipeline Project mainly aims at supplying abundant natural gas to Middle and East China, but it can also reduce air pollution and improve air quality in East China. Through applying a comprehensive environmental and economic simulation model for China, namely the Asian Pacific Integrated Model （AIM-Local/China）, the authors conducted a quantitative analysis of the environmental co-benefits of the West-East Natural Gas Pipeline Project by comparing the business as usual （BAU） scenario and the natural gas （NGS） scenario of the emission of SO2 and CO2 of the projects using the natural gas from this project. The result of the analysis shows that both the amount and extent of emission reduction of SO2 and CO2 are large. During 2003 to 2020, the emission reduction of SO2 and CO2 will be 3.12 million tons and 34.75 million tons respectively, and 40.5 % and 17.9 % lower than the BAU scenario respectively. Among the four sectors using the natural gas, the emission reduction of the electricity sector is the largest regarding both SO2 and CO2.