中国股市晴雨表功能辨析

Analysis on the Weatherglass Function of Chinese Stock Market as an Economic Indicator

国民经济周期变化影响上市公司业绩和资金供求关系,反过来股票市场通过筹资功能、价格发现机制、资源配置功能和财富效应对国民经济发展产生影响,这是股市晴雨表功能的理论基础。近几年中国股票市场与经济增长背离,具有诸多复杂多变的各种因素,要使中国股市晴雨表功能全面反映,还需以进一步深化改革为依托。

Macroeconomic and the Stock Market would interact through some mechanisms, and should have positive correlation. It is the academic basic of the weatherglass function of stock market as an economic indicator. However, Chinese stock market deviate the Chinese growing economy in the past years. The paper analyses weatherglass, Chinese macroeconomic and Chinese Stock Market, and brings forward three viewpoints： The weatherglass function of stock market as an economic indicator could not be simply negative; The weatherglass, Chinese macroeconomic and Chinese Stock Market is special; Chinese stock market could not entirely act the weatherglass function until it is deepened to reform.