中国工业化中的能源消耗强度变动及因素分析——基于分解模型的实证分析

Change in Energy Consumption Intensity and the Main Factors during the Process of China's Industrialization——An Empirical Analysis based on the Decomposition Model

文章运用Laspeyres指数及其分解模型,对中国能源消耗强度进行分解,并对其影响因素进行研究。研究结果表明,1980年以来,中国能源使用效率虽然有了很大的提高,但与发达国家相比,能源消耗强度仍然有很大的下降空间。中国能源消耗强度下降主要是各产业能源使用效率提高的结果,相对于效率份额,结构份额对能源消耗强度的影响也少得多,除了少数年份外,产业结构的调整对降低能源消耗强度的作用是负面的。

Based on the Laspeyres index and decomposition model, change taken place in energy consumption intensity in China from 1980 to 2003 has been analyzed in this paper. During this period, China＇s energy efficiency has been greatly increased; however, much more can be done to reduce the energy consumption in terms of the great gap between China and other developed countries on this issue. The decrease of China＇s energy consumption intensity from 1980 to 2003 was mainly due to the improved energy efficiency of industries as a whole. Compared to efficiency, industry structure has much less influence on the energy consumption intensity, furthermore, with the exception of few years, industry restructure even has a negative effect on energy efficiency.