近40年阿克苏河流域径流变化特征及影响因素研究

Study on the Change of Runoff and the Effect Factors in the Aksu River Basin in Recent 40 years

利用1961-2000年近40a的气温、降水、冻土深度等逐月资料及年蒸发量资料和20世纪50年代初或中期建站起到90年代中期径流逐月实测资料,分析20世纪下半期阿克苏河流域径流变化特征及其与气候变化的关系,同时分析人类活动对径流变化的影响作用。研究表明:阿克苏河流域普遍存在升温的变化趋势,尤其是冬季升温明显;同时导致冻土层温度的升高和冻土退化;流域内降水增加趋势明显。1990年以后径流增加趋势更加明显,从年内变化分析来看,流域内各水文站春、夏季径流有明显的增大趋势;秋、冬季径流减少明显;分析径流的变化特点,主要还受到流域地表状况变化、大面积开荒及上游水库调节等人类经济活动作用的影响。

The paper analyzes the data of the monthly air temperature, precipitation, frozen soil depth and annual evaporation observed by 7 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2000 and the monthly data of nmoff of the Aksu River Basin, measured by 6 hydrological stations from the 1950s to the period of the 1990s in the Aksu River Basin so as to study the change of the runoff and the relation with climatic change. At the same time it analyzes the influence function of human activities with the runoff in the Aksu River Basin in recent 40 years. The results show that the climatic wanning occurs universally in the Aksu River Basin, especially in winter, which has resulted in the temperature increase and shrinkage of frozen soil and the precipitation in the basin has been obviously reduced. The natural runoff of the Aksu River basin has significantly increased especially since 1990. Viewing from the seasonal change of the runoff in the basin, the runoff has obviously increased in spring and summer, but the runoff is reduced in autumn and winter. It is considered that the runoff change of the Aksu River Basin is mainly affected by human activities, such as the status changes of the earth＇ s surface, opening up wasteland on a large scale and the regulation of the upper reaches reservoirs.