灌溉经济效益模拟计算及群决策优选灌溉方案

Simulation Calculation of Irrigation Economic Benefit and Optimization Choice of Irrigation Schemes Based on Group Decision

在对灌溉效益特点进行分析的基础上,指出灌溉方案决策中存在两种不确定性,即随机不确定性和模糊不确定性。并针对灌溉方案决策的这一特点,使用模拟方法,以经济净现值为指标对研究区的农业灌溉方案的经济效益进行模拟求解;使用群决策的方法对灌溉方案进行多人多目标决策,将个人的偏好集结成群体的偏好,避免各决策者因知识结构等因素的不同,做出不符合实际的决策。研究结果表明:该模型简单、通用,基于此模型做出的决策更符合实际。

Based on the analysis of the characteristic of irrigation benefits, this paper pointed out that there existed two kinds of uncertainty, namely random uncertainty and fuzzy uncertainty, in decision of irrigation schemes. According to this characteristic, the expected benefit of each irrigation scheme for research area was calculated by taking Economic Net Present Value as evaluating index, and multiple objectives decision for irrigation scheme was made through group decision method, which can avoid the unreasonable decision caused from the differences of knowledge structure among decision-makers, and integrate preference of each decision-maker＇s to the preference of group. The application result showed that the model was convenient, general, and decision based on the model was more practical.