用蒙特卡罗法评估配电系统模糊可靠性

Evaluation of Fuzzy Reliability for Distribution Systems Based on Monte Carlo Approach

针对配电系统的随机事件和元件原始参数的模糊性,提出了一种基于蒙特卡罗仿真法(MCS)的模糊可靠性评估方法。使用模糊集理论,用隶属函数表示元件故障率和修复率的模糊性。该方法不仅可以获得配电系统可靠性指标的期望值,同时得到可靠性指标在不同置信度上的分布。通过仿真算例验证了该方法的有效性。

This paper presents a Monte Carlo based approach for fuzzy reliability evaluation aiming at random events of distribution systems and fuzziness of component original parameters. This approach uses fuzzy set theory and represents the fuzziness of component failure rates and repair rates by membership functions. The method can obtain not only the expected values of distribution system reliability indices but also the distribution of reliability indices with different confidence. Simulation cases show that the approach is valid.