经济发展必须直面输入型金融危机——中国宏观经济现状的一种实证分析

Economic Growth Must Face up to the Input-Type Financial Crisis --An Empirical Analysis on China's Current Macroeconomic Situation

本文通过对中国宏观经济状况的分析认为:中国大宗商品进出口价格的巨大背离、中国国内价格的背离将导致企业整体利润下降或亏损增加,由于我国融资体系以间接融资为主且数家国有银行占主导,因此企业经营风险将集中转移至银行体系,直接表现为银行呆坏账提高,风险积聚到一定程度将可能以金融危机形式表现出来,我们赋予其新的概念——输入型金融危机。

Through the analysis on China＇s current macroeconomic situation, the main point of view is presented in this essay. The severe price deviation of import and export of Chinese commodities, and the deviation of domestic prices will lead to the decrease of profit or the increase of loss in Chinese enterprises as a whole. Because the financing system in China is mainly the bank-based indirect financing only with a few state-owned banks dominant, such operational risk in Chinese enterprises will transfer entirely to bank system, with a direct result of the increase of bad and doubtful accounts in banks. When the risk is accumulative to a certain extent, it will probably manifest with a form of financial crisis, which is called in this essay the input-type financial crisis as a new concept.